The final weekend of the NBA regular season has arrived, and the Nuggets don’t have clarity yet on their playoff seed or first-round opponent.
With two games to go, they can still finish in third, fourth or fifth place in the Western Conference standings. The Minnesota Timberwolves (most likely), Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers (least likely) remain mathematically in play as potential first-round matchups.
As Denver prepares to host Oklahoma City on Friday night, here are the latest seeding scenarios and what they each mean.
NBA Western Conference playoff seeding: Who has clinched?
These are the teams still in play for each spot in the final standings.
- Thunder
- Spurs
- Nuggets (52-28), Lakers (51-29) or Rockets (51-29)
- Nuggets, Lakers or Rockets
- Nuggets, Lakers or Rockets
- Timberwolves
- Suns
- Clippers (41-39) or Trail Blazers (40-40)
- Clippers or Trail Blazers
- Warriors
Whichever team finishes as the No. 3 seed will face the Timberwolves in the first round. The fourth- and fifth-seeded teams will match up against each other.
Nuggets tiebreakers with Lakers, Rockets explained
These three teams are done facing one another head-to-head, so the tiebreaker scenarios are already decided.
• Nuggets-Rockets two-way tie: Nuggets won the season series, 3-1. Nuggets get the higher seed.
• Nuggets-Lakers two-way tie: Lakers won the season series, 2-1. Lakers get the higher seed.
• Lakers-Rockets two-way tie: Lakers won the season series, 2-1. Lakers get the higher seed.
• Nuggets-Lakers-Rockets three-way tie: Lakers won their division. Nuggets and Rockets didn’t. Lakers get the highest seed (No. 3). Nuggets get the next-highest seed (No. 4) based on head-to-head results. Rockets get the lowest seed (No. 5).
Remaining schedules
Lakers: Friday vs. Suns (44-36); Sunday vs. Jazz (21-59).
Rockets: Friday vs. Timberwolves (47-33); Sunday vs. Grizzlies (25-55).
Nuggets: Friday vs. Thunder (64-16); Sunday at Spurs (61-19).
Nuggets clinch No. 3 seed if…
• Nuggets win one game + Lakers lose one game
• Nuggets win both remaining games
• Nuggets lose both remaining games + Lakers lose both remaining games + Rockets lose both remaining games
All of these scenarios result in a Nuggets (3) vs. Timberwolves (6) first-round series.
Nuggets are No. 4 seed if…
• Nuggets win one game + Lakers win both remaining games = Nuggets (4) vs. Rockets (5)
• Nuggets lose both remaining games + Lakers win at least one game + Rockets lose at least one game = Nuggets (4) vs. Rockets (5)
• Nuggets lose both remaining games + Lakers lose both remaining games + Rockets win both remaining games = Nuggets (4) vs. Lakers (5)
Nuggets are No. 5 seed if…
• Nuggets lose both remaining games + Rockets win both remaining games + Lakers win one game = Lakers (4) vs. Nuggets (5)
• Nuggets lose both remaining games + Rockets win both remaining games + Lakers win both remaining games = Rockets (4) vs. Nuggets (5)
Magic numbers to clinch
Another way to wrap your head around these scenarios is with “magic numbers,” referring to the number of remaining games (out of four) that need to work out in Team A’s favor to clinch a higher seed than Team B.
A win for Team A or a loss for Team B would count toward the magic number.
• Nuggets’ magic number to clinch higher seed than Rockets: 1
• Nuggets’ magic number to clinch higher seed than Lakers: 2
• Lakers’ magic number to clinch higher seed than Nuggets: 3
• Lakers’ magic number to clinch a higher seed than Rockets: 2
• Rockets’ magic number to clinch a higher seed than Lakers: 3
• Rockets’ magic number to clinch a higher seed than Nuggets: 4
Why the Timberwolves are most likely first-round opponent
Context is vital this weekend.
First, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are out with injuries this weekend for the Lakers, meaning they’re fighting an uphill battle no matter the opponent. However, Phoenix Suns star Devin Booker is also sitting out Friday’s game in Los Angeles, because the Suns are locked into their Play-In Tournament seed. That’s a team with no incentive to win, which could help out the Lakers. Then on Sunday, they face a team that is specifically incentivized to lose — the tanking Utah Jazz will be trying to finalize its draft lottery odds.
As for Denver’s schedule: It looks difficult, but that’s somewhat deceptive. Throughout the NBA, the Thunder, Spurs and Nuggets are generally regarded as the three best teams in the West, if not the entire league.
Oklahoma City and San Antonio will be on opposite sides of the West playoff bracket as the top two seeds, but the Nuggets will have to end up on a side with one of them. (One half of the bracket includes Nos. 1, 4, 5 and 8. The other side includes Nos. 2, 3, 6 and 7.)
This gets at an unspoken truth that could define this weekend: Oklahoma City and San Antonio will both want to push Denver to the other side of the bracket.
From the Thunder’s vantage point, Denver securing the No. 3 seed is a perfect outcome — guaranteeing that OKC will have to face only one of the Nuggets or Spurs en route to the NBA Finals. Likewise, the Spurs would enjoy watching Denver and OKC beat each other up in a long second-round series, with only one emerging victorious and exhausted.
That means the Thunder will be incentivized to lose Friday at Ball Arena, pushing the Nuggets toward third place. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso and Jaylin Williams have all been ruled out.
The inverse is also true. If the Nuggets haven’t clinched the No. 3 seed yet by Sunday, San Antonio might want to do everything in its power to push them down to fourth place. In that scenario, Denver might have to reckon with Victor Wembanyama.
And what should the Nuggets want? There’s no obvious answer. They’re certainly wary of the Timberwolves, a team they’ve faced in a series twice in the last three years already. Avoiding them would be a benefit of falling into the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. But it would also mean clashing with OKC in the second round instead of the third. It’s a pick-your-poison situation, and Denver seemed to be hedging on its options Friday with an injury report that listed all five starters as questionable.
Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.
